For decades, the prospect of Celtic and Rangers joining the English Premier League (EPL) has remained British football’s greatest fantasy concept.
In 2002, it could have become a reality following the collapse of the Nationwide Football League’s broadcaster, ITV Digital. Member clubs considered inviting the Glasgow giants into the second tier of English football, as a means of weathering an impending financial storm.
Unfortunately, the move was blocked, as some feared missing out on promotion or being pushed towards relegation. It was commented at the time that it would have been “Like turkeys voting for Christmas!” There was also strong opposition from other Scottish clubs, both football associations, as well as UEFA and FIFA.
Had the move gone through however, the recent history of both clubs would have been drastically altered. It would also have changed the course of football throughout Britain.
This article has been split into three parts:
- Part 1: 2002 – 2004
- Part 2: 2004 – 2011
- Part 3: 2012 – 2020
An alternate timeline (shown in red) will be compared to each period to explain what might have happened if Celtic and Rangers had moved to England in 2002.
Part 1: 2002 – 2004
Reality Timeline:
Throughout the late 90s/early 2000s, both clubs were capable of competing on and off the park with the vast majority of EPL clubs.
The optimum time for Rangers entering the EPL would have been anytime during the previous decade. For Celtic it would have been at the start of the 2001/02 season, after winning the Scottish domestic treble in Martin O’Neil’s first season.
However, between 2002 and 2004 both teams would have excelled in England’s top flight. Here is a summary of the Glasgow clubs during this period:
Celtic:
- Very strong under Martin O’Neil
- Considered an upgrade from most EPL clubs at the time (e.g. O’Neil left Leicester City to manage Celtic in 2000)
- Star players included Larsson, Sutton, Lennon, Lambert, Petrov and Hartson
- Won three league titles, including a domestic treble in 2000/01
- Defeated the likes of Ajax, Juventus, Porto, Lyon, Liverpool and Barcelona
- Reached the UEFA Cup Final in 2003
Rangers:
- Had remained one of Europe’s biggest spending clubs since the 1980s
- Star players included the De Boer twins, Ferguson, Amoruso, Kanchelskis, Van Bronckhorst, Numan, and Ricksen
- Increased use of Employee Benefit Trusts (EBTs) during these years
- Alex McLeish replaced Dick Advocaat and won the treble in 2002/03
- Lost two key players in 2003: Barry Ferguson and Lorenzo Amoruso left for Blackburn Rovers to experience the EPL
Alternate EPL Timeline:
Had Celtic and Rangers entered the Nationwide First Division in 2002, they would almost certainly have gained instant promotion to the top flight.
Even if both clubs had been parachuted straight into the Premier League, they would have been highly competitive. This was evidenced through Celtic knocking out Blackburn and Liverpool en route to the UEFA Cup Final. In 2002/03, both of Celtic’s conquests finished 6th and 5th in the table, as shown below:
English Premier League Table (2002/03)
- Man United
- Arsenal
- Newcastle
- Chelsea
- Liverpool
- Blackburn Rovers
- Everton
- Southampton
- Man City
- Tottenham
- Middlesbrough
- Charlton
- Birmingham City
- Fulham
- Leeds United
- Aston Villa
- Bolton Wanderers
- West Ham
- WBA
- Sunderland
Celtic’s ability to beat stronger teams in Europe (including two from England) suggests that they could have instantly adapted to the EPL. At the time, they were as good as any English team outwith Manchester United and Arsenal; therefore could have achieved a top four Champions League spot.
Despite winning the Scottish Premier League (SPL) that season, it was not proven how well Rangers would have fared against better opposition (unlike Celtic in the UEFA Cup). Though judging by the quality of their squad, they could have challenged for a top six European place.
In the summer of 2003, neither Barry Ferguson nor Lorenzo Amoruso would have moved to a smaller EPL club like Blackburn if they were in the same division (neither would Celtic’s best players join Southampton years later).
After consolidating themselves in the EPL by 2004, both Glasgow clubs could have used the vast influx of English TV money to strengthen each year.
Part 2: 2004 – 2011
Reality Timeline:
From 2004 onwards, Scottish clubs struggled to compete financially with their English counterparts, as the level of TV money between the two countries became increasingly polarised.
As the economic realities facing Scottish clubs became more apparent, a period of downsizing was required, as opposed to the more extravagant spending of the early 2000s.
Celtic:
- Lack of investment after the UEFA Cup Final (2003)
- Henrik Larsson left to join Barcelona in 2004
- Martin O’Neil left for family reasons in 2005 – replaced by Gordon Strachan
- Threw away the league in the final stages at Fir Park and lost 5-0 to Artmedia Bratislava in Strachan’s first game (2005)
- On a smaller budget, Strachan rebuilt Celtic – winning 3 consecutive league titles between 2005/06 and 2007/08
- Twice reached the knockout stages of the Champions League in 2006/07 and 2007/08 (defeated Manchester United and A.C Milan)
- Decline after 2008 – failed to win the league for 3 seasons (including the calamitous reign of Tony Mowbray)
- Neil Lennon became permanent manager after initially taking charge on an interim basis following Mowbray’s dismissal (2010)
Rangers:
- Won the league in dramatic fashion in 2004/05
- Reached the last 16 of the Champions League in 2005/06
- Failed to win a league title for 3 years after 2005
- Walter Smith replaced Paul Le Guen and revived Rangers’ fortunes
- 2008 – 2011: Reached the UEFA Cup Final (2008) and won 3 league titles in a row
- The club’s financial situation became perilous by the end of the decade
- In 2011, David Murray sold the club to Craig Whyte for £1
Alternate EPL Timeline
Celtic
By 2005, Celtic had evidently stagnated and declined. This was due to a lack of investment in an ageing team after Seville (2003), and talisman – Henrik Larsson departing for Barcelona in 2004.
Had Celtic been in the EPL however, it could have strengthened. Most importantly, Larsson would have stayed until 2006 (the same year he left Barcelona after proving instrumental in their Champions League final victory).
Unfortunately, Martin O’Neil would still have left the club in 2005 due to family reasons. In a highly competitive league, this transitional period may have been difficult.
If Celtic had been an EPL club, Gordon Strachan might not have replaced O’Neil, as the job would have interested the best managers from around the world.
In reality, Tony Mowbray was appointed after being relegated with West Brom and Neil Lennon replaced him without any managerial experience. Had Celtic been in English football at this point, neither manager would have got the job.
Towards the end of the decade, the South Stand at Celtic Park could have been extended to raise the stadium’s capacity above 80,000. After years of accumulating EPL TV money, this would have been financially viable. Every home game would have been full to capacity against more glamorous opposition.
Throughout this period the foundations could have been laid for achieving success in the following decade.
Rangers
With access to EPL money and competition, Rangers would also have been able to attract the world’s best players.
Assuming Alex McLeish would still have been their manager until 2006, Rangers might still have appointed Paul Le Guen that summer. Although he proved to be a flop, his appointment was seen as a major coup after winning multiple French league titles with Lyon.
Whilst he only lasted a few months as manager, his tenure would have been even shorter in England. If the club were in relegation trouble, they would probably have still turned to Walter Smith.
After a couple of years, Smith could have consolidated them as a top six EPL team. Bear in mind he guided them to the UEFA Cup Final in 2008 and had previously managed Everton in the Premier League.
Most significantly, the club’s ownership would have fallen into good hands. As an EPL club, a white knight investor would surely have come to its rescue. Instead of buying Manchester City in 2008, Sheikh Mansour’s Abu Dhabi consortium could have bought Rangers (as Murray was desperate to sell). Such a scenario is not as outlandish as it may seem, as Everton and Newcastle were also considered for purchase. However, City was ultimately chosen because the club was available.
Part 3: 2012 – 2020
Reality Timeline:
The most significant event throughout this period was undoubtedly Rangers’ financial implosion in 2012.
After amassing huge debts to other clubs, businesses and HMRC (by avoiding paying tax through EBTs), the club went into administration and eventually – liquidation!
A ‘newco’ was formed in the fourth tier of Scottish football. It would not gain promotion to the top flight until 2016.
Since the mid 2000s, Celtic had applied a sustainable business model that operated within the confines of Scottish football. Whilst it could not compete with the transfer fees and wages in England, it invested in other areas like youth development and its scouting system.
Celtic’s Academy produced first team stars like James Forrest, Callum McGregor and Kieran Tierney. The club also signed relatively unknown players like Victor Wanyama (£900,000 from Beerschot) and Virgil Van Dijk (£2.5m from Groningen) and later sold them on for a large profit.
In the wake of Rangers’ financial collapse, Celtic’s focus on sustainability enabled them to emerge as the single dominant force in Scottish football.
Here is a summary of the key events throughout this period:
Rangers:
- Went into administration followed by liquidation (2012)
- A ‘newco’ Rangers began in the fourth tier of Scottish football
- Owners, including Charles Green and Dave King offered little in terms of transparency or credibility
- A host of managers, including Ally McCoist, Stuart McCall, Mark Warburton, Pedro Caixinha and Graeme Murty failed to deliver success
- In 2018, Liverpool legend, Steven Gerrard was appointed manager
- Despite improving, the club is yet to win any silverware
Celtic:
- Since 2011, Celtic has won 4 Scottish Cups, 5 League Cups, and 9 league titles in a row (winning the last 11 domestic trophies available)
- Defeated Barcelona in 2012, and Lazio home and away in 2019
- Lost top players like Wanyama, Forster, Van Dijk, Dembele and Tierney
- In February 2019, Brendan Rodgers abruptly left to manage Leicester City (contrast this to Martin O’Neil leaving Leicester for Celtic in 2000)
- The club could complete an historic ‘ten-in-a-row’ next season
Alternate EPL Timeline
Rangers
As discussed, Rangers use of EBTs, along with huge debts owed to other clubs and businesses led to the club’s liquidation in 2012.
Going back to 2002, there are two possible scenarios that may have prevailed had they moved to England.
Firstly, they would not have needed to use EBTs to sign players like Ronald and Frank De Boer; therefore may have stopped using them.
Secondly, if they had continued to use them, the annual English TV money accumulated could have paid off their enormous tax bill. The club may still have faced financial sanctions and a possible points deduction (and even relegation), but administration and liquidation would have been avoided.
In either scenario, the club would not have sunk into the abyss! In the EPL, a billionaire investor would most likely have bailed them out – perhaps even Donald Trump! (He was supposedly interested in buying them in 2012).
Celtic
During the initial period (2002-2004), it was easier to measure how well Celtic would have done in the EPL. In reality, its financial capability and standard of team were more in sync with what it would have been in English football.
By 2012, Celtic could have been in the EPL for ten years (18 by 2020). As time has moved on, the difference between reality (i.e. the nature of the club/standard of the team) compared with an alternate reality (i.e. what it could have been in the EPL) has continuously widened.
On an EPL timeline continuum from 2004 onwards, Celtic’s recent history would have been unrecognisable (e.g. through receiving vast increases in TV money).
Celtic’s majority shareholder, Dermott Desmond would have invested far more of his personal fortune if he was guaranteed a return. Furthermore, an overseas billionaire would probably have bought the club around the turn of the 2000s/2010s decade. The club’s focus on sustainability would have shifted towards paying enormous transfer fees and wages.
An enhanced financial capability would have resulted in a lot of players and managers (e.g. Ronny Deila) not representing the club. Had Brendan Rodgers been at Celtic in the EPL, he would not have deserted his ‘boyhood heroes’ to go to a smaller English team like Leicester City.
Celtic would also have retained and built their team around stars like Moussa Dembele and Virgil Van Dijk (the foundation of Liverpool’s Champions League and Premier League winning side).
In comparison to dominating Scottish football, achieving success in England would have been extremely difficult. Bear in mind a number of big clubs have not won anything for decades (e.g. Aston Villa, Everton, Newcastle, Leeds United etc.). Even Liverpool went 30 years without winning a league title!
However, even if Celtic had joined England’s list of sleeping giants, it would at least have had the opportunity to compete on a level playing field (in terms of finances and competition). Depending on how well the club was run, it could either have fallen on its sword or emerged as a major force in British and European football.
Other Scottish Clubs
After losing its two biggest clubs in 2002, the remaining SPL may have struggled financially (e.g. selling its TV rights). However, clubs like Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs, Dundee United, Motherwell and Kilmarnock would all have competed for league titles. In a more open league, weekly attendances may even have risen.
Furthermore, there is evidence that member clubs could survive. After losing Rangers from the top flight in 2012, many observers believed this would result in the “Armageddon!” of Scottish football, although such fears were not realised.
Without either club indefinitely, it would have been even more challenging. However, even if some were forced into eventually becoming part-time, they would have adapted accordingly to ensure their survival.
Conclusion
ITV Digital’s collapse in 2002 provided a small window of opportunity to finally answer British football’s greatest debate: How would Celtic and Rangers fare in England?
Although the move was ultimately blocked, it continues to be contested by fans on both sides of the border (more so in the age of social media).
As time has moved on, the difference between reality (i.e. the ability of both clubs playing in Scotland) compared to an alternate EPL timeline (since 2002) would have become increasingly polarised due to the potential impact of accumulating vast sums of TV money each year.
Whilst increased TV revenue could have enabled both teams to compete at the highest level, it would have altered Rangers’ history more profoundly, as the club would have been saved from financial ruin.
Had Celtic and Rangers moved to England in 2002, it would not only have had massive ramifications on the remaining SPL, but also for English football. Adding these huge clubs to its ranks would have been like inserting two predators into a finely balanced eco system – it would have disrupted its natural order! Furthermore, such a fiercely intense tribal rivalry would have added another dimension to the glamour of the EPL.
Although it is difficult to know for certain how successful either team would have been in England, the move would have provided them with a platform for becoming elite clubs in world football.
By Mark Nicholas
themarkjnblog/football 